Could Australian Property Prices Double by 2030? What KPMG & REA Are Predicting

What KPMG and REA Are Actually Saying

KPMG's latest residential property market outlook paints a picture of continued momentum across Australia's housing market:

• National house prices rose 8.6% in 2025
• National unit prices rose 7.3% in 2025
• KPMG forecasts national house values to rise a further 7.7% in 2026
• National unit prices are forecast to grow 7.1% in 2026

The outlook is underpinned by stabilising financial conditions, constrained housing supply, and an expanded 5% deposit scheme drawing more first-home buyers into the lower price bracket.

REA Group's PropTrack modelling takes things even further. If recent growth patterns were to repeat over the next five years, buyers could be paying:

• 61% more in Sydney: pushing median house prices toward $2.4 million
• 68% more in Brisbane
• 75% more in Adelaide
• 66% more in Perth
• 17% more in Melbourne
• 40% more in Hobart and Canberra

These figures are striking. And while growth at these exact rates isn't guaranteed, the underlying drivers, population growth, undersupply, and constrained borrowing capacity, remain firmly in place.

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City-by-City Forecast Breakdown (2026–2027)

Here's what KPMG is forecasting for house price growth across capital cities:

City

2026

2027

Perth

13%

5%

Darwin

11%

7%

Brisbane

11%

9%

Adelaide

8%

3%

Melbourne 

7%

7%

Sydney 

6%

6%

Canberra 

5%

3%

Hobart 

5%

4%

Even the more modest forecasts represent meaningful growth for property investors using leverage. A 5% increase on a $500,000 property purchased with a $100,000 deposit doesn't return 5%, it returns 25% on your actual cash invested. That's the power of property as an asset class.

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Why the Affordable End of the Market Is Set to Outperform

One of the most important insights from the KPMG report is that the affordable segment is positioned to outperform the premium end of the market.

Here's why this matters:

• Borrowing capacity limits how high most buyers can stretch
• More buyers compete in the affordable price bracket
• Demand concentration drives price growth in lower price bands
• During economic uncertainty, renters and buyers move toward affordable options, not away from them

Think of the market as a pyramid. At the top, you have prestige properties with a limited pool of buyers. At the base, you have the highest volume of buyers competing for accessible, affordable homes. That competition is what creates consistent price pressure and demand.

The sweet spot right now? Properties in the $500,000 to $900,000 range in markets with strong fundamentals. This is where demand is deepest, supply is tightest, and growth is most reliable.

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Why Forecasts Alone Don't Tell the Full Story

It's worth being clear: no forecast is guaranteed. KPMG, REA, SQM Research, they all model based on assumptions. Affordability constraints, wages growth, and policy changes can all alter trajectories.

What the data does tell us, consistently, is this:

• Supply is not keeping up with demand. Housing approvals for houses grew just 2.6%, versus 34.2% for units. Completions lag even further behind.
• Population growth continues. Australia's annual population growth sits at approximately 1.5%, adding sustained pressure to housing demand.
• Inflation erodes the real cost of debt over time. Investors who hold quality assets through cycles benefit from both appreciation and debt reduction in real terms.

The risk isn't investing in the wrong market. For most Australians, the bigger risk is waiting.

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The Real Cost of Sitting on the Sidelines

Many Australians are waiting for certainty before they invest in property. But history shows that waiting for the "perfect time" is often the most expensive decision investors make.

Consider this:

• Property prices in some cities are forecast to be 60–75% higher by 2030
• Every year of delay is a year of missed compounding growth
• Entry prices today may look like bargains in three to five years
• Equity built now becomes the deposit for your next investment property

Time in the market, supported by a clear strategy, has consistently outperformed attempts to time the market perfectly.

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How to Position Your Portfolio for 2026 and Beyond

Given everything the data is pointing to, here's how smart investors are approaching the current market:

• Focus on affordable, high-demand markets where buyer depth is strongest
• Prioritise capital growth fundamentals over chasing high rental yields alone
• Use leverage strategically - debt used correctly accelerates wealth; used without a plan, it amplifies risk
• Review your structure - if borrowing capacity is limiting your next purchase, it may be time to assess your portfolio structure, including options like SMSF property investment
• Buy based on data, not headlines - sentiment shifts constantly; fundamentals don't

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Conclusion: The Window Is Open, But It Won't Stay That Way Forever

KPMG and REA's research isn't saying the market is perfect or that growth is guaranteed. What it is saying is that the structural drivers behind Australian property, population growth, housing undersupply, and constrained new builds, remain firmly intact.

For investors with a clear strategy, 2026 represents a genuine opportunity to enter or scale a property portfolio before forecast growth plays out.

The question isn't whether prices will keep rising. The question is whether you'll be positioned to benefit when they do.

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Ready to Make Data-Driven Investment Decisions?

At Search Property, we help investors identify markets and property types that align with long-term wealth goals. Our 12.21% average growth rate in 2025 outperformed the national average for the sixth consecutive year, and we did it by focusing on fundamentals, not trends.

Book a FREE investment assessment with Search Property. We'll discuss your budget, goals, and strategy to ensure you're investing in assets that actually build wealth.